Determinants of Displacement*

Andrew Shaver, Benjamin Krick, Teagan Zuniga, Kai Bauer-Seeley, Isabella Caldarelli, Dheera Dusanapudi, Andrea Infante, Aaron Liow, Yasmine Lunar, Brian McCarthy

*Working paper forthcoming. Please check back soon.

A large body of scholarship explores the determinants of forcible displacement and refugees’ decision to return home. In this project, we reconsider these relationships, making both theoretical and empirical contributions. On the former, we propose a shift from the oft-referenced push-pull framework to one that additionally accounts directly for both restrictions on movement as well as diversionary flows. For instance, while much academic and policy focus concerns the potential effects of a changing global climate on displacement, our work explores the potential immobilizing effects of severe weather and natural disasters in preventing (rather than prompting) international flows. On the latter, we 1) use newly released data on refugee flows to analyze the determinants of displacement in a manner heretofore not possible; and 2) develop various fine-grained measures derived from satellite imagery and other data sources to
carry out macro-empirical testing using variables with precise micro-foundations.